Every Medicare Advantage member in the country, one dot per 20,000 people, sorted by star rating. Humana is exiting plans covering about 600,000 of them in 2027. Here is what that looks like next to what it keeps.
One. Humana's 3.5-star band alone holds 3,590,176 members — 40.7% of everybody in the country sitting in a 3.5-star contract. A single Humana contract, H5216, accounts for 2,373,762 of them across 2,501 counties. That one contract is four times the size of the entire announced exit.
Two. Humana has zero members in a contract rated 5.0 stars, and zero in a contract rated 2.0. Its whole book lives in the middle, which is exactly where the bonus-payment cliff at 4.0 sits. Kaiser, at the other end, has zero members below 4.0.
Three. The exit is small and the recapture is real. Humana recaptured just over 40% of the members affected by its 2025 exits into other plans it offers and expects a similar share this time, so roughly 360,000 people actually move to a different carrier — about 1% of the national Medicare Advantage population, and 8% of Humana's low-star book left in place.
National averages hide the whole story. In Montana, 57% of every Medicare Advantage member in the state is in a Humana low-star contract. In California it is 3.9%. If you run a health system, this is the number that tells you whether a Humana margin-recovery decision is a headline or a budget event.
The grey band at the bottom of the field is 1,190,059 members in 378 contracts CMS did not rate — “plan too new to be measured” or “not enough data available.” That is 42.9% of all MA contracts and only 3.3% of members. Every clean statement of the form “X% of plans are 4 stars or better” has quietly decided what to do with those 378, and almost none of them tell you which choice they made.
Becker's reports that “twenty percent of the insurer's members are in plans rated 4 stars or higher for 2026.” Weighting the published CMS files by June 2026 enrollment at the contract level gives 38.6% under the 2026 Star Ratings and 43.0% under the 2025 ratings. Nobody is lying. “Percent of members in 4-star plans” is several different metrics — contract vs. individual plan benefit package, which rating year, whether group and Puerto Rico business counts, current membership vs. next-year projection. The lesson is the boring one: a number you cannot rebuild from the source file is a number you do not understand yet.
The overall star rating is a contract-level composite built mostly from HEDIS, CAHPS, and administrative measures, published once a year, lagged by two performance years, and adjusted for disasters. It is a good predictor of a plan's bonus payment. It is a weak predictor of what happens to the specific 4,000 attributed lives in your ACO. Do not read this field as a quality map.
Join the CPSC enrollment file to the 2026 star ratings for the counties you actually serve and compute one number: the share of your Medicare Advantage volume in contracts rated 3.5 or lower. That is your exposure to the next round of exits, it takes about fifteen minutes, and it is a better input to next year's budget than any national average on this page.